Let’s be real—if you’ve been paying attention to the housing market in New Jersey (and honestly, a bunch of other spots around the country), you know it’s been a wild few years. We’re not talking about a little shift—we’re talking about a total shake-up.
There was a time—not all that long ago—where you’d hop on your phone or laptop after dinner, scroll through a few listings, and spot a house that caught your eye. You’d send a quick text to your realtor, maybe line up a showing for the weekend. You’d walk through it, think it over, maybe even see a couple more. Then you’d sit down, crunch some numbers, and write an offer—often under asking. And more times than not, that offer was enough to get the deal done.
That playbook? It’s gone.
The market turned into a game of musical chairs with way more people trying to grab a seat than there are chairs. Prices shot up, homes started flying off the market, and the whole thing became a race—fast, competitive, and, sometimes, flat-out frustrating.
And here’s what people need to understand: this isn’t just a buyer issue or a seller issue. It’s everyone. The whole structure of how we do business has changed—lenders, realtors, attorneys, appraisers, and even home inspectors have had to adjust. The way deals come together, the timelines, the expectations—it’s all been flipped.
This isn’t the market most of us were used to. And after a few solid years of this new normal, it’s time we stop waiting for it to “go back” to what it was. It won’t. The only way forward is to understand how it works now—and let’s be honest, it sure as hell doesn’t get easier on its own.
What the Hell Happened?
Alright, so how’d we end up here?
It wasn’t just one thing. It was a mess of things all hitting at once. Think of it like a clogged highway on a Friday afternoon before a holiday weekend. Too many cars, not enough lanes, and then someone up ahead hits the brakes. That’s what happened to the housing market—everything backed up at the same time, and nobody could move forward like they used to.
Rates dropped to record lows, and suddenly more people could afford homes—or at least thought they could. Buyers flooded the market. But, at the same time, builders hit the brakes. Some were spooked by talk of a bubble, others couldn’t get the materials, and let’s not forget land around here isn’t exactly plentiful.
I’ve heard every theory out there—people blaming big corporations for buying up single-family homes or saying it’s all because folks from New York City came pouring into Jersey. And a lot of that is just recycled takes from whatever’s hot in the news that week. But here’s what you have to remember: the news isn’t here to inform—they’re here to get clicks. That means stories get spun, dramatized, and made flashy enough so you’ll read them. And then we end up repeating those headlines like gospel, even if they’re only partially true.
It’s not fake news—but it’s rarely the full picture either. What those stories do is give people something simple to blame. But when you’re actually working in this day in and day out, you start to shake your head at how off the mark it can be.
The truth is, no one thing caused this. What really happened was a perfect storm—low interest rates, builder slowdowns, supply chain issues, shifting migration patterns, and a dozen other dominoes all falling at once.
And now here’s the part people really need to wrap their heads around: inventory doesn’t just magically stabilize on its own. It takes years of consistent building to catch up, and we’re not even close. Demand hasn’t gone anywhere. So, if you’re looking for one number to watch, it’s inventory. And when you look at the numbers—what’s available, what’s coming, and what’s realistically buildable—it just doesn’t come close to matching the amount of people trying to buy. That’s the part that isn’t changing anytime soon.
In fact, New Jersey’s inventory levels are still dramatically below where they should be. Some estimates predict we’d need over 2,500 more homes just to return to a balanced market. And don’t let the “new construction” headlines fool you—a building permit isn’t a house. Most of those builds won’t hit the market for another nine to 12 months, if at all. Builders are still dealing with everything from labor shortages to material delays to zoning battles—and nationally, housing starts are actually down compared to last year.【source: U.S. Census Bureau & HUD, May 2025】
The Jersey Squeeze
Now let’s zoom in on Jersey, because what’s happening here isn’t just some side effect—it’s the epicenter for a lot of this mess.
We’ve always had the unique challenge of geography: you’ve got limited land, tight zoning, and people who don’t want more development in their backyard. At the same time, you’ve got a steady wave of folks leaving New York City and eyeing the ‘burbs—especially places with good schools, decent space, and a train line.
That combo? It’s made New Jersey one of the tightest, most competitive markets in the country. Towns that used to get a few offers now see bidding wars before the weekend’s over. A property priced right doesn’t sit—it moves. Fast.
And the demand keeps growing. But the one thing that’s not growing? Inventory. There just isn’t enough supply, and what little gets listed is being chased by way too many buyers. The numbers tell the story, and they’re not pointing toward relief anytime soon.
And just to put numbers behind the squeeze: according to Redfin and FRED data, even with slight seasonal upticks, we’re still nowhere close to normal inventory levels in New Jersey. If every builder broke ground today, we’re still looking at a two to three year climb just to reach balance—and that’s assuming nothing else stalls progress.【sources: Redfin Market Data, FRED】
This is the squeeze. And it’s why everything feels so much harder around here. Because it is.
How Buying a Home Has Changed
Let’s talk about what it actually looks like to buy a house today. Because it’s not the same game it used to be.
One of the biggest shifts—and the hardest things for buyers to wrap their heads around—is the role of asking price. People assume it’s a target, like it used to be. But in today’s market, asking price is often just the starting line. It’s designed to bring in attention. That doesn’t mean every house will go over asking, but it does mean you can’t treat it like a hard limit.
You’ve got to ask smart questions: Has the home been on the market more than a week? Are there other offers on the table? How’s inventory in that area? If the listing has received multiple offers or it’s early in the listing, chances are you’ll need to be aggressive. But if it’s been sitting for a while and there’s no competition, your strategy should change.
Bottom line—asking price is a conversation starter, not a final word. And knowing when and how to push past it—or pull back—depends on the situation and the people guiding you.
To stay competitive, buyers are doing things that might’ve sounded crazy just a few years ago, like:
- Waiving appraisal contingencies – This means you’re agreeing to buy the house even if the appraisal comes in lower than the price you’re offering. Let’s say the home is selling for $600,000, but the bank says it’s worth $570,000—you’ve got to cover that $30,000 gap out of your own pocket.
- Skipping or limiting home inspections – In a more balanced market, inspections were non-negotiable. Now? Buyers are either waiving them completely or agreeing to do inspections for “informational purposes only,” meaning you can’t use what you find to renegotiate or back out.
- Adding escalation clauses – This is when your offer automatically increases to beat out others. Example: you offer $610,000 but include a clause that bumps your bid up by $5,000 over any competing offer, up to a max of $640,000. It’s like silent auction warfare.
- Paying over asking – In hot markets, it’s not uncommon to see offers $50,000, even $100,000, over list. But again—just because that happens doesn’t mean it’s always necessary. It depends on the property, the timing, and how many people want it.
And if you have to sell a home before you buy? Honestly, that’s almost a death sentence for your offer in this market. Most buyers don’t realize how much of a red flag that is. From a seller’s perspective, it adds layers of uncertainty, delays, and potential fallout that they just don’t need—especially when other buyers are ready to go now.
Put yourself in their shoes: you’ve got three offers in front of you. Two of them are clean—no strings, no delays. Then there’s one that says, “We want the house, but we can’t close until we sell ours.” What would you do? Most people don’t even hesitate.
Unless you’re in a rare market situation or can time everything perfectly with the right team backing you, having a home sale contingency puts you at the back of the line. It’s harsh, but it’s the reality right now.
The bar has shifted. It’s no longer just about what you can afford—it’s about what you’re willing to risk to win the deal.
Real Talk: The Unspoken Costs
Let’s talk about what doesn’t get said enough. Everyone talks about prices, mortgage rates, and how competitive things are. But not enough people talk about the emotional toll—and the real, hidden costs—of being unprepared.
What makes the biggest difference? The people in your corner. Working with the right professionals—your lender, your realtor, your attorney—isn’t just helpful, it’s your competitive advantage. In a market this fierce, they’re not just your team—they’re your power move. They’re the difference between locking in your dream home or watching someone else scoop it up while you’re still figuring things out.
And this isn’t fluff. This is the most underutilized advantage buyers have—and most don’t even realize it. People spend hours stressing over offer price, but completely overlook who’s helping them craft that offer. A strong, strategic team can make your bid stand out even if you’re not the highest. That’s not a theory—it’s fact, and I’ve seen it happen more times than I can count.
Too often, people choose a family friend, a neighbor, or the cheapest option thinking they’re saving a few bucks or helping someone out. But that short-term “savings” ends up being the most expensive mistake they’ll ever make. It’s the classic case of being pennywise and dollar foolish—and in this market, that can cost you tens of thousands.
Now let’s talk about realtors. For years, people questioned whether they were worth what they earned. I’ve heard it all—from sellers, builders, even colleagues. And I get it. I’ve worked with more than enough realtors who didn’t act like pros. But I can tell you right now: in this market, a true professional realtor is one of the most valuable people you can have on your side.
They’re not just opening doors and filling out contracts. Anyone can do that. A real pro knows the market inside out, has the respect of other agents, asks the right questions, and strategizes your offer. They know when to push and when to pull back. They build trust with the listing side, so your offer gets taken seriously.
You wouldn’t take your sick kid to a doctor who practices medicine part-time a couple times a year just because they’re cheap or you went to high school together. So why would you treat the biggest financial decision of your life any differently?
This isn’t the time to play around with people who dabble in real estate. You want someone who does this day in, day out—and does it well. Because when it comes to getting your offer accepted in today’s market, that’s the difference between getting the keys and starting over from scratch.
Your mortgage pro isn’t just there to plug in numbers. They should be helping you craft the structure of your offer, show strength to the listing side, and position you to compete. And your attorney? If they don’t know how to navigate attorney review fast and smart, they can blow up your deal before it even starts.
The truth is this: every person on your team is either opening doors or creating roadblocks. In this market, you don’t have time or space for dead weight. Choose wisely. Your offer price is only one part of the puzzle. The people you put around you—that’s the real game changer.
Real Stories, Real Lessons
Let’s shift from advice to real-world experience. These aren’t hypotheticals—these are actual situations I’ve been a part of, and they illustrate just how quickly things can go wrong or right based on decisions buyers make.
One buyer came in hot—offering $67,000 over asking on a $400,000 listing. That kind of offer wouldn’t be out of the ordinary if there were multiple bidders or a clear bidding war. But in this case? They were the only offer. No other bids on the table. Somewhere along the way, that context was missed, and instead of negotiating, the agent submitted an offer that had the buyer effectively bidding against themselves.
A quick call to the listing agent could’ve cleared that up—but it didn’t happen.
When the listing agent called me to verify the buyer’s approval and financial strength, they mentioned the appraisal waiver. That’s when I reached out to the buyer’s agent to better understand how they arrived at their number. It became clear that, while they meant well, they just weren’t fully prepared for how this market works. The comps they shared wouldn’t be usable by any appraiser, and when I asked for justification, the best they could offer was that it was “a really desirable area.”
Intentions aside, that’s not how value is determined in underwriting or by the appraiser.
We stepped in, had a real conversation about the data, and restructured the appraisal waiver properly. Fast-forward: the appraisal came in right at asking—$400,000. If we hadn’t caught that and adjusted their offer structure, they would’ve been on the hook for an additional $67,000 out of pocket on top of their down payment. All because of an assumption—and poor guidance.
There’s another story that shows how timing and hesitation can cost just as much as poor guidance. I worked with a first-time homebuyer for nearly three years. She was incredibly nervous—like so many are when stepping into this market for the first time. She started looking before things really took off, before the full wave of price jumps and bidding wars. In that time, she had multiple offers accepted.
But every time, fear crept in. She’d get cold feet, start second-guessing things, talk it through with her mom, and eventually back out. The anxiety around going over asking, waiving contingencies, or just trusting the process got the best of her. And look—I don’t fault anyone for being cautious. I never push someone into doing something they’re not ready for. You’ve got to be comfortable.
But fast forward to that final year of her search. The homes she once looked at for $500,000? Now they were selling for well into the $600,000s. And they weren’t as nice. The condition wasn’t as good, and there were fewer options. So not only did her budget buy her less, but think about the equity growth she missed by not locking in earlier.
Eventually, the stress was too much and she pulled out entirely—and ended up renting a place for the same monthly payment she would’ve had if she’d bought three years earlier. That part hit hard.
These aren’t rare stories. These are weekly stories. I have ongoing conversations with realtors where I find myself explaining how to properly structure appraisal waivers—because too many are advising clients to waive appraisals without fully understanding what that means. They’re capable, sure—but this market demands more than capability. It demands experience, confidence, and clarity.
And it’s not just about poor advice—it’s also about what fear and hesitation can cost you. That’s why education, preparation, and having the right support matters more than ever. Because the stakes are high, and real estate doesn’t wait.
Winning in This Market Starts Here
This market isn’t waiting for anyone. So, if you’re serious about buying, here’s how you stack the odds in your favor:
- Start by understanding the real landscape. Don’t base your decisions on headlines, group chats, or what worked for someone else years ago. This is a new game, with new rules.
- Be proactive—not reactive. Talk to a lender who gets it, who knows the structure behind competitive offers, and can give you real insight into what you can afford, what you can stretch for, and what needs to be protected. Fully underwritten beats pre-approved every time. Sellers see the difference.
- Make sure your agent is more than someone with a license. You need someone who studies the market daily, understands how to communicate with listing agents, and helps you avoid wasting time or money. Someone who knows when to be aggressive and when to hold your ground.
- And when it comes to deciding how to move, focus less on what feels safe and more on what actually gives you a chance to win. That might mean waiving a contingency, it might mean offering above asking—but those choices should be based on facts and strategy, not panic.
- Stop waiting for the “perfect time.” The perfect time was three years ago. The next best time is when you’re ready—with the right plan, the right mindset, and the right people in your corner.
Now let’s put this in perspective. Are there deals to be had? Sure. I’ve seen buyers do their homework, get creative, stay patient, and walk away with great buys. But they were dialed in, they weren’t waiting for magic. And even then, you have to ask: what did it cost them in time, in stress, in missed opportunities?
You win when you know exactly what you’re walking into. That means understanding your position, understanding the market, and understanding how to put your best foot forward.
And let’s kill one of the most common throwaway lines out there: “They’re crazy, it’s not worth that.” Listen—value is what someone’s willing to pay. If it closes at that number, that’s what it’s worth. It’s not about what your cousin thinks it should be. This isn’t a bartering market. It’s not priced like a garage sale. It’s simple supply and demand.
Put yourself in the other person’s shoes. If you’re a buyer, think like a seller. If you’re a seller, think like a buyer. When you start to look at the deal from both sides, everything starts to make a lot more sense.
Final Thoughts: This Isn’t Forever, But It Is Right Now
Markets change, yes. But waiting for the perfect moment? That often turns into watching from the sidelines while others make moves.
You don’t have to buy the perfect home. You just have to buy the right one for you, right now.
And the only way to do that is to go in with your eyes open, your strategy sharp, and your team ready.
Jersey real estate isn’t for the faint of heart—but if you’re ready to play, I’m here to coach you through it.
Let’s make it happen. Contact me today.
And if there’s one thing to take with you, let it be this:
The market doesn’t wait for you to be comfortable. It rewards the ones who are prepared.